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GTA 6 pre-orders pass $1 billion before launch, Sensor Tower estimates

Analyst firm Sensor Tower now puts GTA 6’s digital pre-orders above $1 billion, across roughly 10.31 million copies, before the game has shipped a single playable byte. Take-Two has not confirmed any number, and the distinction matters.

Original LeonidaNews graphic: GTA 6 pre-orders estimated above $1 billion

Sensor Tower’s latest figure puts GTA 6 above $1 billion in digital pre-orders across roughly 10.31 million copies as of November 11, net of expected returns and cancellations. PlayStation accounts for about 75% of them and Xbox for the remaining quarter. Reported

That is a steep climb. On November 3 the same firm estimated more than $750 million across about 7.71 million copies. One later reading, published on November 13, put it at 11.27 million copies and $1.09 billion as of November 12. Reported

What Take-Two has actually said

Strauss Zelnick told Variety ahead of the November 9 earnings call that pre-sales are running far in excess of our expectations, and repeated that pre-orders do not guarantee results. He said the company will share more about how GTA 6 performs after launch. On the record

Take-Two guided to net bookings of $3.35 billion to $3.5 billion for the October–December quarter, against $1.76 billion a year earlier, and held its full-year outlook at $8 billion to $8.2 billion. That range covers the whole company, though GTA 6 is plainly what moves it. On the record

Both platform holders claim a record

Sony said on November 10 that GTA 6 is the most pre-ordered game in PlayStation Store history, and Microsoft has said the same of its own store. Neither gave a number, which is why analyst models are filling the gap. Confirmed

The comparison everyone reaches for

GTA 5 took about $815.7 million worldwide in its first 24 hours in September 2013 and crossed $1 billion within three days. GTA 6 is estimated to have reached that figure before anyone has played it. Reported

The two are not like for like: one is pre-orders across two digital storefronts, the other is launch sales across retail and digital on two console generations. The scale is still the story. For what happens next, Newzoo projected in July that GTA 6 could take $3.3 billion to $5.2 billion in its first week. Reported

Where the real numbers come from

The first figure anyone can bank is Take-Two’s, and that will not arrive until after launch. Until then, treat every pre-order total you see — ours included — as a model. Our price and editions guide covers what each version costs and what the $99.99 Ultimate adds.

FAQ

How many GTA 6 pre-orders are there?

Nobody outside Take-Two knows. Sensor Tower estimates about 10.31 million digital copies as of November 11, net of expected returns. Rockstar and Take-Two have not published a figure.

Is the $1 billion number official?

No. It is an analyst estimate of digital storefront revenue. Take-Two has said only that pre-sales are running far above its expectations.

How does that compare with GTA 5?

GTA 5 took about $815.7 million in its first 24 hours in 2013 and passed $1 billion within three days. GTA 6 is estimated to have reached a similar figure before release, but pre-orders and launch sales are not the same measure.

Does this include physical copies?

The estimate covers digital pre-orders on the PlayStation and Microsoft stores. Boxed copies, which contain a download code rather than a disc, are not part of it.

Sources

Editorial note: Sensor Tower models storefront data; it does not see Take-Two’s books. We report its figures as estimates and label them accordingly. Take-Two has said it will share performance detail after launch, and we will update this page then.

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